4th & Data
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IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

IND
50.0%
JAX
50.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • IND offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • IND crossing 6 time zone(s)
  • IND defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.034 vs Andrew Luck (IND) -0.026 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

IND

Darius Butler CB Out Hamstring
Jonotthan Harrison C Out Illness
Donte Moncrief WR Out Shoulder
Phillip Dorsett WR Questionable Ankle
Denzelle Good T Questionable Back
Joe Reitz T Questionable Back

JAX

Ben Koyack TE Out Knee
Jared Odrick DE Out Tricep
Dan Skuta LB Questionable Hip
Julius Thomas TE Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 27
–
JAX 30

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:27 TD JAX (8:27) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 01:54 FG IND (1:54) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – JAX 7
  • Q2 08:57 FG IND (8:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 6 – JAX 7
  • Q2 04:13 TD JAX (4:13) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG JAX (:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. IND 6 – JAX 17
  • Q3 11:55 FG JAX (11:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. IND 6 – JAX 20
  • Q3 02:55 FG JAX (2:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. IND 6 – JAX 23
  • Q4 14:52 TD IND (14:52) 62-L.Clark reported in as eligible. 23-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – JAX 23
  • Q4 07:13 TD IND (7:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – JAX 23
  • Q4 05:15 TD JAX (5:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – JAX 29
  • Q4 03:10 TD IND (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 15-P.Dorsett for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – JAX 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:41) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to JAX 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 30 for 12 yards (28-J.Todman).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:58) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to IND 25, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 20 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 62%

    (1:54) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:14) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to IND 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 25 for 4 yards (52-H.Pullard).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

    (8:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (1:13) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%

    (11:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:51) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 54 yards to JAX 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 13-R.Greene to JAX 29 for 8 yards (26-C.Geathers). PENALTY on JAX-29-J.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 21.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 52%

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon pushed ob at IND 35 for 4 yards (52-D.Jackson).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 72%

    (2:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:50) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to IND 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray to IND 22 for 14 yards (25-P.Thompson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:41) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 78 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 27%

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 83-D.Allen (29-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:38) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to IND 18, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 34-J.Ferguson to IND 22 for 5 yards. Lateral to 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for no gain (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), recovered by IND-12-A.Luck at IND 19. 12-A.Luck to IND 18 for -1 yards. Lateral to 15-P.Dorsett to IND 14 for -4 yards (21-P.Amukamara).