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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model