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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon pushed ob at IND 35 for 4 yards (52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model