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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model