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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to CIN 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP