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Miami Dolphins

1-3 HC Adam Gase
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Cincinnati Bengals

2-2 HC Marvin Lewis
Thursday 2016-09-29 · 20:25 ET Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIA
29.0%
CIN
71.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): +0.206 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.021 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20 13–27
–
CIN 26 19–33
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIA

Jordan Cameron TE Out Concussion
Arian Foster RB Out Hamstring
Koa Misi LB Out Neck
Mike Pouncey C Out Hip
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Groin
Anthony Steen G Doubtful Ankle
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Not Injury Related
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Hamstring
Jason Jones DE Questionable Ankle
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Hamstring
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Neck
Dion Sims TE Questionable Ankle
Branden Albert T Questionable Ankle
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Quadricep
Reshad Jones S Questionable Knee
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Shoulder

CIN

Dre Kirkpatrick CB Doubtful Hamstring
Tyler Eifert TE Doubtful Ankle
Derron Smith S Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 7
–
CIN 22

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 FG CIN (9:56) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PENALTY on MIA-50-A.Branch, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA 0 – CIN 3
  • Q1 09:15 TD MIA (9:15) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – CIN 3
  • Q1 03:24 TD CIN (3:24) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – CIN 9
  • Q2 04:16 FG CIN (4:16) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 7 – CIN 13
  • Q2 01:11 FG CIN (1:11) 2-M.Nugent 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 7 – CIN 16
  • Q3 06:13 FG CIN (6:13) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 7 – CIN 19
  • Q4 13:35 FG CIN (13:35) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. MIA 7 – CIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (9:56) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PENALTY on MIA-50-A.Branch, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:45) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 22 for 1 yard (26-J.Shaw).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:52) 4-M.Darr punts 66 yards to CIN 10, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:10) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:24) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 43 for 11 yards (46-C.Harris; 59-N.Vigil).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 27%

    (12:45) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to CIN 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 74%

    (7:41) 32-J.Hill left end to MIA 30 for 1 yard (56-D.Butler; 24-I.Abdul-Quddus).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:16) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (1:11) 2-M.Nugent 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:29) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to CIN 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 27 for 12 yards (48-M.Gray).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

    (10:33) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to CIN 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (6:13) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:09) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to CIN 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 26 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 78%

    (13:35) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:19) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to CIN 35, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 38 for 3 yards (31-M.Thomas; 35-W.Aikens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 31%

    (8:36) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:53) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant to MIA 25 for 1 yard (53-M.Flowers).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 14-J.Landry (37-C.Lewis-Harris) [96-C.Dunlap].

    See the full breakdown →