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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to CIN 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model