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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 2-M.Nugent 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth +0.79 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP