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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 19

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to CIN 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 26 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model