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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 19 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.30 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model