Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

(12:19) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to CIN 35, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 38 for 3 yards (31-M.Thomas; 35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.62 EP
55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model