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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PENALTY on MIA-50-A.Branch, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model