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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model