Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Miami Dolphins 7

(3:53) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant to MIA 25 for 1 yard (53-M.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.74 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model