4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 14-J.Landry (37-C.Lewis-Harris) [96-C.Dunlap].

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -1.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model