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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 19 at the 98

New Orleans Saints 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NO 49, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at NO 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -4.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 98, worth -6.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model