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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 16:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

NO
52.1%
SD
47.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.215 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.108 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.201 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
SD 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Delvin Breaux CB Out Fibula
Josh Hill TE Out Ankle
Senio Kelemete G Out Hamstring
Tyeler Davison DT Questionable Shoulder
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Quadricep
James Laurinaitis LB Questionable Quadricep
Willie Snead WR Questionable Toe
Kenny Vaccaro S Questionable Ankle

SD

Jahleel Addae S Out Collarbone
Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Joey Bosa DE Out Hamstring
King Dunlap T Doubtful Illness
Antonio Gates TE Doubtful Hamstring
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Jatavis Brown LB Questionable Hamstring
Orlando Franklin G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 35
–
SD 34

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 TD NO (10:36) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – SD 0
  • Q1 01:15 TD LAC (1:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 86-H.Henry for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – SD 6
  • Q2 09:24 TD NO (9:24) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 29-J.Kuhn for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – SD 7
  • Q2 07:15 TD LAC (7:15) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 15-D.Inman for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – SD 13
  • Q2 04:53 FG LAC (4:53) 2-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. NO 14 – SD 17
  • Q2 00:17 TD LAC (:17) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – SD 23
  • Q3 09:04 TD NO (9:04) 29-J.Kuhn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – SD 24
  • Q4 12:19 TD LAC (12:19) 28-M.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 21 – SD 30
  • Q4 08:43 FG LAC (8:43) 2-J.Lambo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. NO 21 – SD 34
  • Q4 04:55 TD NO (4:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – SD 34
  • Q4 02:00 TD NO (2:00) 29-J.Kuhn right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 34 – SD 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:44) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to NO 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 21 for 7 yards (53-J.Perry).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 18 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 38 for 18 yards (6-T.Morstead).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (4:53) 2-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 19 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to NO 49, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at NO 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Harris).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 19 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to NO 47, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at LAC 48 for 5 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NO 30, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis. LAC-53-J.Perry was injured during the play.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:29) 6-T.Morstead punts 62 yards to LAC 4, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-20-B.Dixon.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:52) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NO 28, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 21 for 10 yards (54-N.Stupar). PENALTY on NO-21-D.Harris, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 21.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:59) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-30-E.Harris. PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.