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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 94

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to NO 47, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at LAC 48 for 5 yards (25-D.Stuckey).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 94, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model