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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NO 30, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis. LAC-53-J.Perry was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model