Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – New Orleans Saints 21

(4:52) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NO 28, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.86 EP
49% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model