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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to NO 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-T.Lewis ran ob at NO 21 for 7 yards (53-J.Perry).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.40 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP