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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(13:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to MIN 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 35 for 8 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.69 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model