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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Monday 2016-10-03 · 20:30 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYG
38.2%
MIN
61.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Marshall Newhouse T Out Calf
Robert Thomas DT Out Illness
Darian Thompson S Out Foot
Eli Apple CB Doubtful Hamstring
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Questionable Groin
Rashad Jennings RB Questionable Thumb

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Questionable Knee
David Morgan TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 10
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:30 TD MIN (6:30) 44-M.Asiata left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 08:04 TD MIN (8:04) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – MIN 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG NYG (:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – MIN 14
  • Q3 07:43 FG MIN (7:43) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. NYG 3 – MIN 17
  • Q4 13:42 TD NYG (13:42) 26-O.Darkwa left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – MIN 17
  • Q4 09:23 TD MIN (9:23) 21-J.McKinnon up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 60%

    (10:52) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to MIN 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:20) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to NYG 39, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIN-35-M.Sherels at NYG 41. 35-M.Sherels to NYG 41 for no gain (17-D.Harris).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

    (4:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%

    (2:56) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:02) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to MIN 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 33 for 5 yards (17-D.Harris).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to NYG 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to MIN 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 35 for 8 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to MIN 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:53) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to NYG 34, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 81%

    (11:02) 3-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (7:43) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:59) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to MIN 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (:32) 18-J.Locke punts 29 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 65%

    (6:14) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (55-A.Barr).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 50%

    (3:35) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 28-P.Perkins.