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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 60

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to MIN 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP