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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 38

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to MIN 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model