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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 18-J.Locke punts 29 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP