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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 24 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP