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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model