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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model