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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 81

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to MIN 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 33 for 5 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model