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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 30

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 8-N.Novak 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU-87-C.Fiedorowicz was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model