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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

TEN
34.1%
HOU
65.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.246 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than TEN
  • TEN defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.007 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.024 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Cody Riggs CB Out Hamstring
Da'Norris Searcy S Out Ankle
Nate Palmer LB Questionable Knee
Delanie Walker TE Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Stephen Anderson TE Out Hamstring
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Ankle
Braxton Miller WR Out Hamstring
Duane Brown T Out Knee
Brian Cushing LB Questionable Knee
Quintin Demps S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 20
–
HOU 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:37 TD HOU (10:37) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 05:38 TD HOU (5:38) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 15-W.Fuller for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 13
  • Q1 02:40 FG TEN (2:40) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – HOU 14
  • Q2 13:47 FG HOU (13:47) 8-N.Novak 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 3 – HOU 17
  • Q2 11:26 TD TEN (11:26) (Shotgun) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-60-B.Jones, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 9 – HOU 17
  • Q2 02:32 TD TEN (2:32) 29-D.Murray left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – HOU 17
  • Q2 00:11 FG HOU (:11) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 17 – HOU 20
  • Q3 07:07 FG TEN (7:07) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 20 – HOU 20
  • Q3 01:12 TD HOU (1:12) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 15-W.Fuller for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (The Punt Hangtime Was 3.65 seconds.) TEN 20 – HOU 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:31) 6-B.Kern punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback. (The Punt Hangtime Was 4.19 seconds.)

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (2:40) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 67%

    (13:47) 8-N.Novak 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 77%

    (8:29) 8-N.Novak 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU-87-C.Fiedorowicz was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 12 for 1 yard (31-C.James). (The Punt Hangtime Was 4.84 seconds.)

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:58) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 46 for 16 yards (52-A.Wallace). PENALTY on TEN-47-A.Blake, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (7:07) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:12) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 15-W.Fuller for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (The Punt Hangtime Was 3.65 seconds.)

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (14:19) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to HOU 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 23 for 1 yard (47-A.Blake).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to TEN 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 33 for 9 yards (46-J.Weeks, 35-E.Pleasant).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 32%

    (10:12) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 50%

    (4:38) 45-J.Prosch up the middle to TEN 42 for no gain (51-D.Bass).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Johnson.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 25 for 17 yards (28-A.Blue).