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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 56

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 12 for 1 yard (31-C.James). (The Punt Hangtime Was 4.84 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model