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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 8

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 4-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model