Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 20 – Houston Texans 20

(1:12) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 15-W.Fuller for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (The Punt Hangtime Was 3.65 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model