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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 42
Houston Texans 27 – Tennessee Titans 20
What Actually Happened
(4:38) 45-J.Prosch up the middle to TEN 42 for no gain (51-D.Bass).
The Three Options
GO
+1.26 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.78 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.66 EP
KICK
-0.01 EP
- 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
- 50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
