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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 20 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 81-A.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.47 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP