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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 66

Houston Texans 27 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 25 for 17 yards (28-A.Blue).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -1.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model