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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model