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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 35

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 8-N.Novak 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.01 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model