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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 17

Denver Broncos 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 17, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.66 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model