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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 16:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ATL
41.9%
DEN
58.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Paxton Lynch (DEN) +0.334 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.190 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Paxton Lynch in place of Trevor Siemian)
  • DEN offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Paxton Lynch (DEN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ATL

De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Ankle
Deion Jones LB Out Ankle
Paul Worrilow LB Out Groin

DEN

DeMarcus Ware LB Out Forearm
Kayvon Webster CB Out Hamstring
Virgil Green TE Questionable Calf
Shiloh Keo S Questionable Knee
Trevor Siemian QB Questionable left Shoulder
Donald Stephenson T Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 23
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 TD ATL (11:22) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 04:28 FG ATL (4:28) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – DEN 0
  • Q2 11:43 FG DEN (11:43) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 10 – DEN 3
  • Q2 01:52 FG ATL (1:52) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 13 – DEN 3
  • Q3 08:00 TD ATL (8:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 26-T.Coleman for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 19 – DEN 3
  • Q4 11:06 FG DEN (11:06) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 20 – DEN 6
  • Q4 08:24 FG ATL (8:24) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 23 – DEN 6
  • Q4 02:43 TD DEN (2:43) 12-P.Lynch pass short right to 88-D.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – DEN 12
  • Q4 00:19 FG DEN (:19) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 23 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (11:22) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

    (8:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to ATL 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-E.Weems. PENALTY on DEN-50-Z.Anderson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ATL 13.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (4:28) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to ATL 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-E.Weems to ATL 37 for 7 yards (33-S.Keo, 50-Z.Anderson).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 73%

    (13:40) 32-A.Janovich up the middle to ATL 29 for 2 yards (36-K.Ishmael; 22-K.Neal).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (11:43) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 61%

    (3:32) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to DEN 34 for 2 yards (51-T.Davis).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (1:52) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-16-B.Fowler.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 68 yards to DEN 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-29-C.Goodwin. PENALTY on DEN-37-L.Doss, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:51) 12-P.Lynch up the middle to DEN 37 for 3 yards (44-V.Beasley).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to ATL 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (11:06) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (8:24) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:59) 23-D.Booker up the middle to DEN 32 for 1 yard (41-P.Wheeler).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 77%

    (2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 24-D.Freeman (58-V.Miller).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at ATL 42 for 6 yards (23-R.Alford). PENALTY on ATL-23-R.Alford, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 42.