Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Denver Broncos 3

(11:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.76 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model