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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.99 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model