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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 85

Denver Broncos 3 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to ATL 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-16-B.Fowler.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 85, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 43, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model