Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 68 yards to DEN 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-29-C.Goodwin. PENALTY on DEN-37-L.Doss, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 1.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.24 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model