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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 1
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Denver Broncos 0
What Actually Happened
(11:22) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 1, worth +0.17 EP
KICK
+1.58 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
