Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 64

Denver Broncos 3 – Atlanta Falcons 20

(3:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to ATL 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model