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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 28

Denver Broncos 3 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.06 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model