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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 7

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 3-M.Bryant 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP